Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Typhoon MEGI (HELEN) Update Number 010


Typhoon MEGI (HELEN) Update Number 010

Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Tuesday 27 September 2016
Next Update: Tuesday Afternoon, 27 September 2016


Current Status and Outlook

MEGI (HELEN) has re-intensified during the past 6 hours as it continues to move in a West-Northwest track, nearing and endangering Taiwan. Its southwestern outer rain bands are currently affecting the Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands.

This typhoon is forecast to continue moving West-Northwest within the next 24 hours towards Central Taiwan at a speed of 22 km/hr.  Its core (eye & eyewall) is expected to make landfall along Mid-Eastern Taiwan this afternoon (between 2:00-4:00 PM).  MEGI (HELEN) will lose strength as it starts interacting with the mountains of Taiwan.

Meanwhile, a sudden enhancement of the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) was observed. This condition will bring occasional rains and gusty winds not exceeding 50 km/hr across MiMaRoPa and Visayas. Sea travel for small to medium size sea crafts at this time will be risky across the area.

Where is Megi (Helen)?

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, September 27...2100 GMT. The eye was located over the southeastern part of the East Taiwan Sea (near 22.8N 123.5E), about 302 km north-northeast of Basco, Batanes or 234 km southeast of Hualien City, Taiwan.

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 170 kph near the center...Gustiness: 215 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving West-Northwest @ 25 kph towards the East Taiwan Sea.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

Batanes Group of Islands – now until this evening (Sep 27).




Storm Surge Info

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 meters (3 to 10 feet) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas ofBatanes and Babuyan Island Group – now until this evening (Sep 27).

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a minimal typhoon strength after crossing the mountain ranges of Taiwan…emerging over Taiwan Strait...about 227 km north-northwest of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [2AM SEP 28: 24.5N 119.4E @ 120kph]Confidence LevelHIGH.

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens rapidly into a Tropical Depression (TD) after making another landfall along the coast of Fujian Province, China and moving further inland…about 213 km north-northwest of Shantou City, China [2AM SEP 29: 25.1N 115.8E @60kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Drifts to the north as it dissipates into an area of low pressure…about 218 km northeast of Ganzhou City, China [2AM SEP 30: 27.3N 116.4E @35kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.


**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 320 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 815 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):220 km from the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue Sep 27, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 22.8º N Lat 123.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 183 km SSW of Ishigakijima, Japan
Distance 2: 282 km NE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 325 km E of Kaohsiung, Taiwan

Distance 4: 498 km NNE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 5: 943 km NNE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph


Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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