Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Super Typhoon HAIMA (LAWIN) Update Number 004


Super Typhoon HAIMA (LAWIN) Update Number 004

Issued at: 7:30 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Tuesday 18 October 2016
Next Update: Wednesday Early Morning,  19 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

HAIMA (LAWIN) becomes a Super Typhoon as it tracks slighly westward during the past 6 hours…now poses a serious threat to Northern Luzon particularly Isabela and Cagayan. Residents along its path are advised beforehand to take all necessary precautions.

This howler is still expected to gain strength within the next 12 hours before weakening slightly through 36 hours, and shall resume its west-northwest movement at a speed of 25 km/hr across the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea.

Where is Haima (Lawin)?

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 18...0900 GMT.  The eye was located along the mid-northern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.5N 129.9E)about 649 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 818 km east-southeast of Palanan, Isabela. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 225 kph near the center...Gustiness: 275 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving slightly Westward @ 25 kphtowards the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea.

Potential Landfall Area

Somewhere between Eastern Isabela and Eastern Cagayan, with a high Strike Probability of 80-90%.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*


*Where Damaging Winds of  >100 km/hr will be expected.

:: Northern Luzon – beginning Wednesday evening through Thursday (Oct 20).

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+

:: Cagayan, Isabela and Northern Aurora – beginning Wednesday afternoon through Thursday (Oct 20).

+Large and dangerous batttering waves and inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of the above provinces. 

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its Super Typhoon strength as it moves closer to the eastern coastline of Northern Luzon…about 282 km east-southeast of Palanan, Isabela [2PM OCT 19: 16.5N 125.0E @ 225kph]Confidence Level:  HIGH.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea after crossing Northern Luzon via Northern Isabela-Southern Cagayan-Kalinga-Abra-Ilocos Provinces. Weakens rapidly as it about to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 154 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2PM OCT 20: 18.6N 119.2E @ 150kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to just a minimal Typhoon as it turns northwestward…prepares to make its final landfall along Guangdong Province…about 83 km east of Hong Kong, China [2PM OCT 21: 22.1N 115.0E @ 130kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 1,020 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):140 km from  the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue Oct 18, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 15.5º N Lat 129.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 904 km SE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan 
Distance 2: 884 km ESE of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 3: 838 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 768 km ENE of Daet, Cam Norte
Distance 5: 950 km ENE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph


Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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