Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Super Typhoon HAIMA (LAWIN) Update Number 006


Super Typhoon HAIMA (LAWIN) Update Number 006

Issued at: 6:45 AM PhT (22:45 GMT) Wednesday 19 October 2016
Next Update: Wednesday Afternoon,  19 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

HAIMA (LAWIN), an Extremely Catastrophic Super Typhoon continues to pose serious danger to the provinces of Isabela and Cagayan as it intensifies further and maintains its swift motion. Residents along its path are advised beforehand to take all necessary precautions.

This dangerous system is expected to continue moving fast within the next 24 hours at a speed of 26 km/hr towards Isabela-Cagayan Area.

Important Note:  Haima (Lawin) is comparable in track and strength of Super Typhoon Zeb (Iliang) whichcrossed Northern Luzon on October 14, 1998.

Where is Haima(Lawin)?

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 19…2100 GMT.  The eye was located over the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.1N 126.7E), about 387 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 469 km east-southeast of Palanan, Isabela. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 250 kph near the center...Gustiness: 300 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving West-Northwestward @ 31 kph,towards the northwesternmost part of the Central Philippine Sea.

Potential Landfall Area

Somewhere between Eastern Isabela and Eastern Cagayan, with a high Strike Probability of 80-90% late this evening or early thursday morning (Oct 20), between 10:00 PM to 1:00 AM.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*


*Where Damaging Winds of  >100 km/hr will be expected.

:: Northern Luzon – beginning this evening through Thursday (Oct 20).

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+

:: Cagayan, Isabela and Northern Aurora – beginning this afternoon through Thursday (Oct 20).

+Large and dangerous battering waves and inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beachfront areas of the above provinces. 

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens as it traverses Isabela-Cagayan Area, after making landfall along the eastern coasts…about 78 km northwest of Palanan, Isabela [2AM OCT 20: 17.4N 121.8E @ 190kph].Confidence Level:  HIGH.

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens further over Northern South China Sea, after it emerges over the West Philippine Sea and moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 427 km west-northwest ofLaoag City, Ilocos Norte [2AM OCT 20: 20.0N 117.0E @ 145kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns to northwest and north as it weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) after making its final landfall along Guangdong Province…about 155 km north of Hong Kong, China [2AM OCT 21: 23.8N 114.0E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 350 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 914 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 855 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):155 km from the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed Oct 19, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 16.1º N Lat 126.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 459 km ENE of Daet, Camarines Norte 
Distance 2: 496 km E of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 3: 513 km ESE of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 4: 555 km ESE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 5: 631 km ENE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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