Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Super Typhoon HAIMA (LAWIN) Update Number 008


Super Typhoon HAIMA (LAWIN) Update Number 008

Issued at: 7:30 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Wednesday 19 October 2016
Next Update: Thursday Early Morning,  20 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

Super Typhoon HAIMA (LAWIN) has weakened further as it quickly nears the Eastern Coasts of Isabela and Cagayan with its main core (eye and eyewall) expected to move ashore later tonight between 9:00 PM to 12 midnight. Residents along its path are advised beforehand to take all  necessary precautions.

This dangerous system is expected weaken further as it fully interacts with the mountains of the Sierra Madre and Cordillera. It will then move west-northwest at a speed of 26 km/hr within the next 12 to 24 hours across the provinces of Cagayan-Isabela-Kalinga-Ilocos Provinces, and shall emerge over the West Philippine Sea just after sunrise tomorrow (Oct 20).

Important Note:  Haima (Lawin) is comparable in track and strength of Super Typhoon Zeb (Iliang) which crossed  Northern Luzon on October 14, 1998.

Where is Haima (Lawin)?

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 19...0900 GMT.  The eye was located along the northwestern corner of the Central Philippine Sea (near 17.0N 123.9E), about 159 km east of Palanan, Isabela or 243 km east-southeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 235 kph near the center...Gustiness: 285 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving West-northwest @ 30 kph, towards Northeastern Isabela-Southern Cagayan Area.

Potential Landfall Area

Somewhere between Northeastern Isabela and Eastern Cagayan between 9pm to 12 midnight tonight, with a high Strike Probability of 85-95%.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*


*Where Damaging Winds of  >100 km/hr will be expected.

:: Northern Luzon – beginning this evening through Thursday (Oct 20).

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+

:: Cagayan, Isabela, Northern Ilocos Provinces and Northern Aurora – occuring now through Thursday (Oct 20).

+Large and dangerous batttering waves and inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of the above provinces. 

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: No longer a Super Typhoon as it weakens while moving WNW across the West Philippine Sea and is about to exit the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 175 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte[2PM OCT 20: 18.6N 119.0E @ 155kph]. Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens further as it is about to make its final landfall over Southern China…about 113 km east of Hong Kong, China [2PM OCT 21: 22.2N 115.3E @ 140kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Just a dissipating Tropical Depression moving northward over the central part of Southeastern China…about 482 km north-northeast of Hong Kong, China [2PM OCT 22: 26.5N 114.8E @ 55kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 500 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 922 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 850 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):175 km from  the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed Oct 19, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 17.0º N Lat 123.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 224 km ESE of Ilagan City, Isabela 
Distance 2: 245 km SE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 3: 374 km ESE of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
Distance 4: 377 km ESE of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur
Distance 5: 409 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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