Thursday, October 06, 2016

Tropical Depression AERE (JULIAN) Final Update


Tropical Depression AERE (JULIAN) Final Update

Issued at: 6:15 PM PhT (10:15 GMT) Thursday 06 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression AERE (JULIAN) has maintained its fast westerly track and is now approaching the northernmost part of the South China Sea, outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Its circulation remains weak and struggling to organize.

This cyclone is forecast to slow down in the coming days and intensify into a Tropical Storm while over the warm waters of the South China Sea.

As the system is no longer a threat to the Philippines, this is now the Final Update on Aere (Julian).

Where is Aere (Julian)?

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 06…0900 GMT.  The center was located over the Southwesternmost part of the Bashi Channel (near 20.5N 118.0E), about 406 km west of Basco, Batanes or 441 km east-southeast of Hong Kong, China. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center...Gustiness: 75 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving Westward @ 28 kph, towards the northern part of the South China Sea.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.




Storm Surge Info


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it slows down over the northern part of the South China Sea...about 323 km southeast of Hong Kong, China[2PM OCT 07: 20.6N 116.8E @ 70kph]. Confidence Level:  LOW.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies further while moving very slowly west-southwestward across the Northern part of the South China Sea…about 275 km southeast of Hong Kong, China [2PM OCT 08: 20.4N 115.9E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens slightly as it remain quasi-stationary with a slow drift northwestward across the northern part of the South China Sea…about 243 km southeast of Hong Kong, China [2PM OCT 09: 20.6N 115.8E @ 80kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation:  25 to 125 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 355 km (Midget)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):None.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu Oct 06, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 20.5º N Lat 118.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 333 km SW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan 
Distance 2: 349 km SSE of Shantou, China
Distance 3: 374 km NW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
Distance 4: 397 km WSW of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 5: 734 km NNW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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