Wednesday, October 05, 2016

Tropical Depression (JULIAN) Update Number 001


Tropical Depression (JULIAN) Update Number 001

Issued at: 12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Wednesday 05 October 2016
Next Update: Wednesday Evening, 05 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

The small area of low pressure which has been accelerating westward across the North Philippine Sea, has strengthened into a Tropical Depression (TD) with local name JULIAN.

This depression is forecast to decelerate with a slight turn towards the West-northwest within the next 24 hours at a speed of 24 km/hr, in the general direction of Batanes-Babuyan Islands Area.  JULIAN shall traverse the Balintang Channel (passing in between Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands by tomorrow morning (Oct 06) and could become a Tropical Storm (TS).

Where is Julian?

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, October 05...0300 GMT.  The center was located over the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.9N 125.8E), about 382 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 436 km southeast of Basco, Batanes. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center...Gustiness: 65 kph

Where is it heading?

It was rapidly moving Westward @ 56 kph, towards the Batanes-Babuyan Islands Area.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

No damaging winds expected, as JULIAN is just a TD. Only moderate to heavy rains are expected within the next 24 hours across Batanes and Babuyan Island Group.




Storm Surge Info


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY MORNING: Traverses the Balintang Channel as a TS while moving West-Northwestward....about 76 km southwest of Basco, Batanes [8AM OCT 06: 20.0N 121.4E @ 65kph]. Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

FRIDAY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while maintaining its strength and slowing down over the northern part of the South China Sea…about 480 km west of Basco, Batanes [8AM OCT 07: 20.3N 117.4E @65kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

SATURDAY MORNING: Remains a TS as it drifts slowly westward across the northern part of the South China Sea…about 299 km southeast of Hong Kong, China [8AM OCT 08: 20.2N 116.0E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 100 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 315 km (Midget)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):None.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Wed Oct 05, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.9º N Lat 125.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 437 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan 
Distance 2: 456 km ENE of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan
Distance 3: 469 km SE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 4: 494 km NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 5: 707 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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