Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Tropical Depression Update Number 001


Tropical Depression Update Number 001

Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Wednesday 12 October 2016
Next Update: Thursday Morning, 13 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

The broad Tropical Disturbance 93W [LPA] located over the Central Philippine Sea, east of Visayas has strengthened into a Tropical Depression (TD)…could pose a threat to Northern Luzon this weekend.

This cyclone is forecast to move very slowly west-northwest and intensify within the next 24 hours at a speed of 02 km/hr, across the middle-part of the Central Philippine Sea. 

Where is the TD?

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 12...0900 GMT.  The center was located over the middle-southeastern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 12.7N 131.1E),about 706 km east-northeast of Catarman, Northern Samar or 754 km east-southeast of Virac, Catanduanes. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center...Gustiness: 65 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving very slowly, Northwestward @ 07 kph,towards the middle-part of the Central Philippine Sea.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.





Storm Surge Info


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies slightly while moving very slowly west-northwestward across the middle part of the Central Philippine Sea...about 758 km east of Legazpi City, Albay [2PM OCT 13: 13.0N 130.7E @ 55kph]. Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its strength as it moves slowly west-northwestward…about 475 km east of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM OCT 14: 13.6N 128.6E @ 55kph]. Confidence Level:  LOW.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) as it starts to accelerate west-northwestward across the mid-western part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 320 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2PM OCT 15: 14.2N 127.1E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 75 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 485 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):None.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed Oct 12, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 12.7º N Lat 131.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 631 km ENE of Borongan City, Eastern Samar 
Distance 2: 770 km ESE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 3: 804 km ESE of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 4: 861 km ESE of Metro Naga, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 1,109 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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