Friday, October 14, 2016

Tropical Storm SARIKA (KAREN) Update Number 005


Tropical Storm SARIKA (KAREN) Update Number 005

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday 14 October 2016
Next Update: Friday Afternoon, 14 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm SARIKA (KAREN) has accelerated as it shifted its course to the west-southwest during the past 6 hours, threatening the provinces of Northern Samar, Bicol, Quezon and Aurora.

This storm is forecast to move west to west-northwest within the next 24 hours at a slow speed of 10 km/hr.Sarika (Karen) is likely to become a Typhoon on Saturday (Oct 15).

Where is Sarika(Karen)?

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 14...2100 GMT.  The center was located over the middle part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 13.4N 127.3E), about 308 km east-northeast of Catarman, Northern Samar or 335 km east ofVirac, Catanduanes. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center...Gustiness: 85 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving West-Southwest @ 23 kph, towards the mid-western part of the Central Philippine Sea.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

None for the next 24 hours.




Storm Surge Info


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Gains strength as it moves west to west-northwestward slowly, closer to the east coast of Catanduanes...about 144 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM OCT 15: 13.9N 125.5E @ 105kph]. Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Typhoon as it continues to move west-northwestward slowly, passing very close to the shores of Northern Catanduanes, Northern Camarines Sur and CamarinesNorte…about 68 km north-northwest of Daet, CamarinesNorte [2AM OCT 16: 14.7N 122.8E @ 145kph]. Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm over the West Philippine Sea, after rapidly traversing Central Luzon…about 271 km west-northwest of Iba, Zambales [2AM OCT 17: 16.4N 117.7E @ 110kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 500 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 465 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):None.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri Oct 14, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.4º N Lat 127.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 346 km ESE of Pandan, Catanduanes 
Distance 2: 359 km E of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 3: 386 km E of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 4: 445 km E of Metro Naga, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 691 km E of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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