Friday, October 14, 2016

Tropical Storm SARIKA (KAREN) Update Number 006


Tropical Storm SARIKA (KAREN) Update Number 006

Issued at: 1:30 PM PhT (05:30 GMT) Friday 14 October 2016
Next Update: Friday Evening, 14 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm SARIKA (KAREN) continues to intensify while over the Central Philippine Sea and has been wobbling northwestward during the past 6 hours and remains a threat to Northern Samar, Bicol Region, Quezon, and Aurora.

This storm is forecast to move west-northwest within the next 24 hours at a slow speed of 09 km/hr. Sarika (Karen) is likely to become a Typhoon by Saturday morning [Oct 15].

Where is Sarika (Karen)?

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, October 14...0300 GMT.  The center was located over the middle-part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 13.8N 126.7E), about 269 km east-northeast of Catarman, Northern Samar or 271 km east of Virac, Catanduanes. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center...Gustiness: 110 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving Northwest @ 12 kph, towards the mid-western part of the Central Philippine Sea, near the East Coast of Catanduanes.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

Catanduanes - beginning Saturday morning until the evening (Oct 15).




Storm Surge Info


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY MORNING: Becomes a Typhoon as it moves slowly west-northwest, very close to the East Coast of Catanduanes...about 89 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes [8AM OCT 15: 14.3N 125.0E @ 130kph].Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

SUNDAY MORNING: Makes landfall in between the towns of Baler and Dingalan, Aurora or in the vicinity of Mingan Mountains…weakens slightly as it starts to cross Central Luzon…about 31 km south-southwest of Baler, Aurora[8AM OCT 16: 15.6N 121.4E @ 135kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

MONDAY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as a weakened Tropical Storm while over the South China Sea…about 440 km west-southwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [8AM OCT 17: 17.0N 116.3E @ 110kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 500 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 495 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):None.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri Oct 14, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.8º N Lat 126.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 272 km ESE of Pandan, Catanduanes 
Distance 2: 305 km ENE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 3: 331 km ENE of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 4: 379 km E of Metro Naga, Camarines Sur
Distance 5: 619 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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