Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Typhoon HAIMA (LAWIN) Update Number 002


Typhoon HAIMA (LAWIN) Update Number 002

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday 18 October 2016
Next Update: Tuesday Afternoon, 18 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon HAIMA (LAWIN) has further intensified as it continues to move fast across the eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea. This typhoon is likely to threaten Northern Luzon within the next two days. Residents along its path are advised to take all necessary precautions.

This cyclone could become a Super Typhoon today and shall continue to move in a west-northwesterly track at a speed of 26 km/hr towards the mid-northern part of the Central Philippine Sea.

Where is Haima(Lawin)?

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 18...2100 GMT.  The eye was located over the mid-eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 14.7N 132.7E), about 908 km east-northeast of Catarman, Northern Samar or 925 km east ofVirac, Catanduanes. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 205 kph near the center...Gustiness: 250 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving West-Northwest @ 24 kph, towards the middle part of the Central Philippine Sea.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

None for the next 24 hours.

Storm Surge Info

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 7 meters (3 to 23 feet) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northeastern Luzon –beginning Wednesday afternoon through Thursday (Oct 20).

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Remains a Super Typhoon (STY) as it moves west-northwestward across the mid-northern part of the Central Philippine Sea...about 458 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM OCT 19: 15.8N 127.8E @ 225kph]. Confidence Level:  HIGH.

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens slightly as it makes landfall over Northern Isabela…about 46 km northwest of Palanan, Isabela [2AM OCT 20: 17.3N 122.1E @ 205kph].  Confidence Level:  HIGH.

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens further as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 432 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2AM OCT 21: 19.9N 116.9E @ 145kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlookchanges every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while thewind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 250 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 933 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]:705 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):140 km from the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue Oct 18, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 14.7º N Lat 132.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 983 km E of Legazpi City, Albay 
Distance 2: 1033 km E of Naga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 3: 1153 km E of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 1200 km ESE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 5: 1258 km E of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph


Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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