Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Typhoon HAIMA (LAWIN) Update Number 003


Typhoon HAIMA (LAWIN) Update Number 003

Issued at: 12:45 PM PhT (4:45 GMT) Tuesday 18 October 2016
Next Update: Tuesday Evening, 18 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon HAIMA (LAWIN) has maintained its strength during the past six hours and continued to move swiftly in a west-northwest direction across the eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea. It poses an impending threat to Northern Luzon. Residents along its path are advised beforehand to take all necessary precautions.

This cyclone is expected to gain more strength within the next 24 hours, and shall continue to move in a west-northwesterly track at a speed of 24 km/hr, towards the mid-northern part of the Central Philippine Sea.

Where is Haima(Lawin)?

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, October 18...0300 GMT.  The eye was located over the mid-eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.3N 131.3E), about 788 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 970 km east of Palanan, Isabela. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 205 kph near the center...Gustiness: 250 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving West-Northwest @ 27 kph, towards the mid-northern part of the Central Philippine Sea.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

None for the next 24 hours.

Storm Surge Info

Possible coastal storm surge flooding above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northeastern Luzon –beginning Wednesday afternoon through Thursday (Oct 20).

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Slightly intensifies as it continues to move west-northwestward across the mid-northern part of the Central Philippine Sea...about 410 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes [8AM OCT 19: 16.3N 126.8E @ 215kph]. Confidence Level:  HIGH.

THURSDAY MORNING: Weakens as it traverses the rugged terrains along the northern part of Northern Luzon…about 39 km southeast of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte[8AM OCT 20: 18.0N 120.9E @ 165kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

FRIDAY MORNING: Weakens further as it moves over the northern part of the South China Sea, outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), and shifting its course to northwest…about 297 km east-southeast of Hong Kong, China [8AM OCT 21: 21.0N 116.7E @ 155kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 250 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 933 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 855 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):140 km from the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Tue Oct 18, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 15.3º N Lat 131.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 850 km ENE of Legazpi City, Albay 
Distance 2: 893 km ENE of Naga City, Camarines Sur
Distance 3: 995 km E of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 1035 km ESE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 5: 1108 km E of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for Weather.com.ph


Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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