Thursday, October 20, 2016

Typhoon HAIMA (LAWIN) Update Number 009


Typhoon HAIMA (LAWIN) Update Number 009

Issued at: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Thursday 20 October 2016
Next Update: Thursday Morning,  20 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

HAIMA (LAWIN) has lost its Super Typhoon classification after its eye made landfall along the shores of Southern Cagayan, very near the Cagayan-Isabela Border at around 11:00 PM last night. Its western eyewall is now affecting Southern Cagayan and Northern Isabela.

This typhoon is expected to weaken further due to its continued interaction with the mountains of the Sierra Madre and Cordillera. Haima (Lawin) will conitnue moving west-northwest at a decreased speed of 25 km/hr within the next 12 to 24 hours across Southern Cagayan, Apayao, Northern Abra and Ilocos Provinces, and shall emerge over the West Philippine Sea later this morning.

Where is Haima (Lawin)?

As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, October 19...1500 GMT. The center was located along the southeastern shores of Cagayan (near 17.6N 122.2E), about 53 km east of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan or 182 km east-southeast of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 180 kph near the center...Gustiness: 215 kph


During the past hour,  a wind gust of 187 km/hr blowing from the NNW occurred on Tuguegarao City Airport (WPF-PAL AWS).

Where is it heading?

It was moving West-northwest @ 32 kph, towards Southern Cagayan, Apayao, Northern Abra and Ilocos Provinces.

Potential Landfall Area

N / A. The Typhoon is now moving overland.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*


*Where Damaging Winds of  >100 km/hr will be expected.

:: Middle and Northern portions of Northern Luzon –Today.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+

:: Northern Cagayan and Ilocos Provinces – Today.

+Large and dangerous batttering waves and inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of the above provinces. 

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

THURSDAY EVENING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it continues to lose strength while over the South China Sea…about 333 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [8PM OCT 20: 19.4N 117.7E @ 145kph]. Confidence Level:  HIGH.

FRIDAY EVENING: Weakens further and turns northwestward as it makes its final landfall over Southern China…about 126 km north-northeast of Hong Kong, China [8PM OCT 21: 23.3N 114.5E @ 90kph]. Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

SATURDAY EVENING: Just a dissipating Tropical Depression moving north to north-northeastward over the central part of Southeastern China…about 410 km west-northwest of Fuzhou, China [8PM OCT 22: 27.3N 115.3E @ 50kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 500 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 933 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 850 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):185 km from  the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Wed Oct 19, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 17.6º N Lat 122.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 61 km NE of Ilagan City, Isabela 
Distance 2: 179 km ESE of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 3: 191 km E of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur
Distance 4: 216 km NE of Baguio City, Benguet
Distance 5: 364 km NNE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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