Thursday, October 20, 2016

Typhoon HAIMA (LAWIN) Update Number 010


Typhoon HAIMA (LAWIN) Update Number 010

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday 20 October 2016
Next Update: Thursday Afternoon,  20 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

HAIMA (LAWIN) has weakened further as it traverses the rugged mountains of Cordillera Administrative Region.  It is now moving across Ilocos Norte on its way to the West Philippine Sea.

This typhoon is expected to continue moving west-northwest within the next 24 hours at a speed of 23 km/hr. It shall emerge over the West Philippine Sea in the next few hours and will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late this afternoon.

Where is Haima(Lawin)?

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 20…2100 GMT.  The center was located along the border of Apayao and Ilocos Norte (near 18.2N 120.9E), about 109 km northwest of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan or 33 km east ofLaoag City, Ilocos Norte. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 155 kph near the center...Gustiness: 195 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving West-Northwest @ 25 kph, towards Ilocos Norte-West Philippine Sea.

Potential Landfall Area

N / A.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*


*Where Damaging Winds of  >100 km/hr will be expected.

:: Ilocos Region and Northern part of Cordillera Administrative Region – Today.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+

:: Ilocos Provinces – Today.

+Large and dangerous battering waves and inundation can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beachfront areas of the above provinces.  

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens further over the South China Sea after moving out from the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 458 km west-northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2AM OCT 21: 20.4N 116.9E @ 140kph]. Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) after making its final landfall over GuandongProvince, China…starts to recurve…about 333 km north-northeast of Hong Kong, China [2AM OCT 22: 24.4N 114.8E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Just an area of low pressure as it completes its recurvature across Zhejiang Province, China…about 198 km west-northwest of Wenzhou City, China [2AM OCT 23: 28.6N 118.8E @ 35kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 400 mm [Moderate to Extreme]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 760 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):150 km from the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu Oct 20, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.2º N Lat 120.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 167 km NW of Ilagan City, Isabela
Distance 2: 44 km S of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 3: 88 km NE of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur
Distance 4: 202 km N of Baguio City, Benguet
Distance 5: 398 km N of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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