Sunday, October 16, 2016

Typhoon SARIKA (KAREN) Update Number 012


Typhoon SARIKA (KAREN) Update Number 012

Issued at: 1:30 AM PhT (17:30 GMT) Sunday 16 October 2016
Next Update: Sunday Morning,  16 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon SARIKA (KAREN) has intensified further as it dangerously nears the shoreline of Aurora…landfall likely in the next few of hours.  Its intense eyewall is now affecting the town of Baler.

This typhoon is expected to move west-northwest with increasing forward speed of 27 km/hr and will cross the provinces of Nueva Ecija and Pangasinan this morning with a probability of 85 to 95 percent.

Where is Sarika (Karen)?

As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, October 15...1500 GMT. The eye was located just along the Coast of Aurora (near 15.4N 122.3E), about 82 km southeast of Baler, Aurora or 81 km south-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 170 kph near the center...Gustiness: 215 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving Northwest to West-Northwest @ 19 kph,towards Aurora.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*


*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

:: Aurora, Northern Quezon incl. Polillo Islands, Eastern Nueva Ecija and Southern Quirino – Today.


At 12:50 AM today, WeatherPhilippines Automated Weather Station (AWS) located in Brgy. Masagana, Dilasag, Aurora had reported wind gusts of 146 kphblowing from the Northeast.

Storm Surge Info

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of  1 to 7 meters (3 to 23 feet) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Aurora, Northern Quezon, Polillo Islands, and Eastern Isabela  tonight through early Sunday morning (Oct 16).

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY EVENING: Cruising westward across the South China Sea as it is about to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while passing over the Scarborough Shoal...about 342 km west of San Fernando, La Union[8PM OCT 16: 16.4N 117.1E @ 140kph]. Confidence Level:  HIGH.

MONDAY EVENING: Re-intensifies while accelerating WNW across the South China Sea, approaching Hainan Island…about 327 km southeast of Sanya, Hainan Island (China) [8PM OCT 17: 17.2N 112.4E @ 165kph]. Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Tropical Storm as it makes landfall over the southern part of Hainan Island (China)…about 59 km south-southeast of Dongfang, Hainan Island [8PM OCT 18: 18.6N 108.9E @ 90kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 200 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 550 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):140 km from  the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sat Oct 15, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 15.4º N Lat 122.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 101 km NE of Infanta, Quezon 
Distance 2: 139 km E of Cabanatuan City, Nueva Ecija
Distance 3: 168 km NNE of Daet, Camarines Norte
Distance 4: 221 km ESE of Dagupan City, Pangasinan
Distance 5: 170 km NE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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