Sunday, October 16, 2016

Typhoon SARIKA (KAREN) Update Number 013


Typhoon SARIKA (KAREN) Update Number 013

Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday 16 October 2016
Next Update: Sunday Afternoon, 16 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon SARIKA (KAREN) has made landfall over Baler, Aurora early this morning, between 2:00 to 2:30 AM. It consequently weakened due to the effect of the rugged mountains of Sierra Madre on its circulation. Its inner rainbands are still affecting the provinces of Northern Nueva Ecija, Nueva Vizcaya, Pangasinan, Benguet and La Union.


This typhoon is expected to generally move to the west at a speed of 26 km/hr within the next 24 hours, towards the West Philippine Sea.

Where is Sarika(Karen)?

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 16...2100 GMT.  The center was located over Northeastern Pangasinan (near 16.1N 120.8E), about 50 km east of Dagupan City or 40 km south-southeast of Baguio City. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 155 kph near the center...Gustiness: 190 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving rapidly West-Northwest @ 30 kph,towards Pangasinan-Benguet Area.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.

:: Northern Nueva Ecija, Nueva Vizcaya, Pangasinan, Benguet and La Union – today.


At 3:00 AM today, WeatherPhilippines Automated Weather Station (AWS) located in Brgy. Zabali, Baler, Aurora (GMA Farms Inc.) had reported wind gusts of 198 kph blowing from the West-Southwest.

Storm Surge Info

Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 5 meters (3 to 16 feet) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Pangasinan, La Union and Northern Zambales – today (Oct 16).


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains it strength as it rapidly moved westward, exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 487 km west of San Fernando, La Union [2AM OCT 17: 16.8N 115.8E @ 155kph]. Confidence Level:  HIGH.

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Re-intensifies over the South China Sea as it approaches the southeastern coasts of Hainan Island…about 218 km east-southeast of SanyaCity, Hainan Island [2AM OCT 18: 17.7N 111.5E @ 140kph].  Confidence Level:  HIGH.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns more to the west-northwest. Weakens over the Gulf of Tonkin after crossing Southern Hainan…about 91 km west-northwest ofDongfang, Hainan Island [2AM OCT 19: 19.5N 107.9E @ 165kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 200 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 540 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):75 km from the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun Oct 16, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 16.1º N Lat 120.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 92 km WNW of Baler, Aurora 
Distance 2: 136 km W of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 3: 70 km NNW of Cabanatuan City, Nueva Ecija
Distance 4: 72 km SE of San Fernando, La Union
Distance 5: 167 km N of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (1)

Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.



No comments: