Sunday, October 16, 2016

Typhoon SARIKA (KAREN) Update Number 014


Typhoon SARIKA (KAREN) Update Number 014

Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (5:00 GMT) Sunday 16 October 2016
Next Update: Sunday Evening, 16 October 2016


Current Status and Outlook

Typhoon SARIKA (KAREN) has weakened further and is now over the West Philippine Sea. Its eastern outerrainbands are still bringing rains across most parts of Northern and Central Luzon.

This typhoon is expected to move towards the west within the next 24 hours at a speed of 27 km/hr. It is forecast to move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility late this evening.

Where is Sarika(Karen)?

As of 11:00 AM PhT today, October 16...0300 GMT.  The center was located over the northern part of the West Philippine Sea (near 16.7N 119.3E), about 132 km west-northwest of Dagupan City or 114 km west of San Fernando, La Union. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 140 kph near the center...Gustiness: 170 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving West-Northwest @ 29 kph, towards the northern part of the West Philippine Sea.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of >100 km/hr will be expected.


Storm Surge Info



3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY MORNING: Weakens slightly as it moves westward, exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 510 km east-southeast of Sanya City, Hainan Island [8AM OCT 17: 16.6N 114.0E @ 130kph].Confidence Level:  HIGH.

TUESDAY MORNING: Turns west-northwestward and re-intensifies slightly over the South China Sea…about 84 km east of Sanya City, Hainan Island [8AM OCT 18: 18.1N 110.3E @ 155kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Rapidly weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS) over the Gulf of Tonkin after crossing Southern Hainan…about 169 km west-northwest ofDongfang, Hainan Island [8AM OCT 19: 19.5N 107.1E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 200 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 740 km (Medium)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):110 km from the center.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sun Oct 16, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 16.7º N Lat 119.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 142 km WNW of Baguio City 
Distance 2: 167 km NNW of Iba, Zambales
Distance 3: 224 km NW of Cabanatuan City, Nueva Ecija
Distance 4: 234 km NNW of Subic Bay
Distance 5: 296 km NW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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