Friday, November 25, 2016

Tropical Depression 29W (MARCE) Update Number 002


Tropical Depression 29W (MARCE) Update Number 002

Issued at: 1:15 AM PhT (17:15 GMT) Friday 25 November 2016
Next Update: Friday Morning,  25 November 2016


Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression 29W (MARCE) has made landfall over Southern Leyte between 9-10pm last night…and is now quickly traversing the Camotes Group of Islands, on its way to Northern Cebu.

This depression has slightly gained strength and is expected to move west-northwest with a decreased forward speed of 23 km/hr.  It shall cross Northern Cebu, Northern Negros and Panay Island this morning…and over Calamian Group of Islands tonight.

*Areas along and near its path of this depression must be aware for possible flashfloods and landslides brought about by its thick rainbands.

Where is Marce?

As of 11:00 PM PhT last night, November 24...1500 GMT.  The center was located in the vicinity of Ponson Island, Camotes (near 10.7N 124.6E), about 22 km west-northwest of Baybay City, Leyte or 33 km south of Ormoc City, Leyte. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 55 kph near the center...Gustiness: 75 kph.

During the past few hours, a wind gust of 74 km/hrblowing from the west-southwest occurred at our Automated Weather Station in Baybay City, Leyte (980411).

Where is it heading?

It was moving West-Northwest @ 33 kph, towards Northern Cebu-Northern Negros-Panay Area.

Potential Landfall Area(s)

Along Northern Cebu between 12mn to 2am today…Northern Negros between 3am to 5am today,with a high Strike Probability of 85-95%.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*


*Where Damaging Winds of  >100 km/hr will be expected.

:: None

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+

:: None

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY EVENING: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) while over the east coast of Busuanga, Calamian Group in Northern Palawan…about 24 km east-southeast of Coron, Palawan [8PM NOV 25: 11.9N 120.4E @ 75kph].Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

SATURDAY EVENING: Turns northwestward as it gains more strength while over the West Philippine Sea…about 243 km west-southwest of Subic, Zambales [8PM NOV 26: 14.0N 118.2E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

SUNDAY EVENING: Slows down as it turns north while over the West Philippine Sea…about 235 km west-northwest of San Fernando City, La Union [8PM NOV 27: 16.8N 118.1E @ 95kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 280 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):None.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Thu Nov 24, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 10.7º N Lat 124.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 40 km NNW of Maasin City, Leyte 
Distance 2: 74 km SE of Bogo City, Cebu
Distance 3: 89 km ENE of Metro Cebu 
Distance 4: 146 km ESE of Cadiz City, Negros Occidental 
Distance 5: 575 km SSE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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