Thursday, November 24, 2016

Tropical Depression (MARCE) Update Number 001


Tropical Depression (MARCE) Update Number 001

Issued at: 7:30 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Thursday 24 November 2016
Next Update: Friday Early Morning,  25 November 2016


Current Status and Outlook

The broad Tropical Disturbance 98W (LPA) [MARCE] near Siargao Island has intensified into a Tropical Depression…expected to cross Southern Leyte and Central Visayas later tonight through Friday morning - where moderate to heavy rains are likely to occur.

This depression is expected to move  west-northwest with a decreased forward speed of 25 km/hr and shall be over the west coast of Panay Island by tomorrow afternoon (Fri).

*Areas along and near its path of this depression must be aware for possible flashfloods and landslides brought about by its thick rainbands.

Where is Marce?

As of 5:00 PM PhT today, November 24...0900 GMT. The center was located very close to the northern shores of Dinagat-Siargao Islands (near 10.0N 126.3E), about 25 km northeast of Siargao Island or 90 km east-northeast of Surigao City, Surigao Dl Norte. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center...Gustiness: 65 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving Northwest @ 36 kph, towards Southern Leyte and Cebu Area.

Potential Landfall Area

Along Southern Leyte between 8pm to 12 midnight tonight, with a high Strike Probability of 85-95%.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*


*Where Damaging Winds of  >100 km/hr will be expected.

:: None

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+

:: None

3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies slightly while over the northern part of Sulu Sea, tracking west-northwest…about 111 km east-southeast of Amanpulo, Pamalican Island[2PM NOV 25: 11.2N 121.7E @ 55kph]. Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Turns northwestward after passing over or very close to the Calamian Group of Islands, strengthens into a Tropical Storm (TS)…about 256 km southwest of Subic, Zambales [2PM NOV 26: 13.3N 118.5E @ 75kph].  Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Slows down as it turns northerly while over the West Philippine Sea…about 192 km west of Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan [2PM NOV 27: 16.3N 118.0E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 200 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):None.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu Nov 24, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 10.0º N Lat 126.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 129 km SSE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar 
Distance 2: 170 km ESE of Maasin City, Southern Leyte
Distance 3: 195 km SE of Tacloban City, Leyte
Distance 4: 265 km ESE of Metro Cebu 
Distance 5: 755 km SE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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