Friday, November 25, 2016

Tropical Storm 29W (MARCE) Update Number 003


Tropical Storm 29W (MARCE) Update Number 003

Issued at: 7:30 AM PhT (23:30 GMT) Friday 25 November 2016
Next Update: Friday Afternoon, 25 November 2016


Current Status and Outlook

29W (MARCE) has strengthened into a Tropical Storm after crossing the northernmost part of Cebu. It is now traversing Northern Panay.

This cyclone is expected to move in a westerly to west-northwesterly track at a speed of 24 km/hrtowards the northern part of the Sulu Sea.

Where is Marce?

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, November 25...2100 GMT. The center was located off the northern coast of Iloilo(near 11.3N 123.2E), about 57 km east-southeast ofRoxas City, Capiz or 55 km north of Cadiz City, Negros Occidental. 

How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center...Gustiness: 85 kph

Where is it heading?

It was moving West-Northwest @ 28 kph, towards Northern Panay and Northern Sulu Sea.

What Philippine areas will be most affected?*

*Where Damaging Winds of  >100 km/hr will be expected.


Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+


3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Further intensifies as it traverses Northern Sulu Sea...emerging over the West Philippine Sea…about 165 km northwest of Coron, Palawan [2AM NOV 26: 13.0N 119.0E @ 85kph].Confidence Level:  MEDIUM.

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to gain strength as it shifts its track northwestward…about 281 km west ofIba, Zambales [2AM NOV 27: 15.8N 117.4E @ 95kph]. Confidence Level:  LOW.

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens as it turns to the north and north-northeast…about 223 km west of ViganCity, Ilocos Sur [2AM NOV 28: 17.8N 118.3E @ 75kph]. Confidence Level:  LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info

- 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center): 25 to 280 mm [Moderate to Heavy]

- Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

- Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 500 km (Small)

- Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):None.

Additional Distances

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri Nov 25, 2016
Location of Center/Eye: Near 11.3º N Lat 123.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 95 km NE of Iloilo City, Iloilo 
Distance 2: 92 km WNW of Bogo City, Cebu
Distance 3: 132 km NW of Metro Cebu
Distance 4: 100 km ESE of Kalibo, Aklan
Distance 5: 436 km SSE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: Leonilo C. Millanes for


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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