Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Tropical Storm LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 02

 

Tropical Storm LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 02

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TROPICAL STORM LAN (PAOLO) UPDATE NO. 02

Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Tuesday 17 October 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday, 17 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm LAN (PAOLO) has been moving slowly westward during the past 12 hours as it strengthened slightly while over the southeastern part of the Central Philippine Sea. 

TS LAN (PAOLO) is expected to remain quasi-stationary during the next 24 hours, and could become a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) later today.

*This storm is still far to directly affect any part of the country.

Meanwhile, a new Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 94W has emerged over the West Philippine Sea, near the west coast of  the Calamian Group of Islands and was located about 237 km west of Coron, Palawan (18.0N 118.0E). This LPA and its associated Trough will bring scattered rains and thunderstorms across MiMaRoPa and most parts of the Visayas today. LPA 94W will be closely monitored for possible development in the next couple of days.

Where is LAN (PAOLO)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 17…2100 GMT.  The center was located along southeastern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 10.8N 132.5E), about 720 km east-northeast of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur or 741  km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 75 kph near the center…Gustiness: 95 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving Westward @ 11 kph, towards Eastern Part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens into an STS while remaining almost stationary over the southeastern part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 741 km east-northeast of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur [2AM Oct 18: 10.8N 132.7E @ 110kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens into a Category 2 Typhoon as it accelerates North to NNE across the eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 993 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2AM Oct 19: 15.5N 133.7E @ 165kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Reaches Category 4 strength as it maintains its northerly track across the southeastern part of the North Philippine Sea…about 1,103 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2AM Oct 20: 18.3N 132.6E @ 205kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 995 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue October 17, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 10.8º N Lat 132.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 740 km ENE of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur
Distance 2: 785 km ENE of Cabadbaran City, Agusan Del Norte
Distance 3: 810 km ENE of Mati City, Davao Oriental
Distance 4: 824 km ENE of Tagum City, Davao Del Norte
Distance 5: 1310 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Monday, October 16, 2017

Tropical Storm LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 01

 

Tropical Storm LAN (PAOLO) Update No. 01

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TROPICAL STORM LAN (PAOLO) UPDATE NO. 01

Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Monday 16 October 2017
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday, 17 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

The Tropical Disturbance (LPA 91W) over the Western Micronesia has developed into a Tropical Cyclone overnight and is now a Tropical Storm globally named as "LAN" –  a Marshallese word for storm.  It is also known in the Philippines as "PAOLO."  This storm is now entering the eastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). 

TS LAN (PAOLO) is expected to move westward for the next 24 hours at a speed of 13 kph, and will become a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it moves across the eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea by Tuesday afternoon (Oct 17).

*This storm is too far away to directly affect any part of the country.

Where is LAN (PAOLO)?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 16…0900 GMT.  The center was located along the PAR line or over the easternmost part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 10.8N 135.0E), about 986 km east-northeast of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur or 1,013 km east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving Northwest slowly @ 05 kph, towards Eastern Part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (50 to 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens into an STS while moving temporarily westward across the eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 726 km east-northeast of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur [2PM Oct 17: 11.0N 132.5E @ 100kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon as it accelerates northward across the eastern part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 794 km east-northeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar [2PM Oct 18: 12.8N 132.8E @ 130kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Still intensifying as it reaches Category 2 Typhoon, still moving northward across the northeastern part of the Central Philippine Sea…about 972 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2PM Oct 19: 16.2N 133.1E @ 155kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 645 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon October 16, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 10.8º N Lat 135.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 1044 km E of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte
Distance 2: 1053 km E of Cabadbaran City, Agusan Del Norte
Distance 3: 1056 km ENE of Butuan City, Agusan Del Norte
Distance 4: 1094 km ENE of Panabo City, Davao Del Norte
Distance 5: 1569 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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Sunday, October 15, 2017

Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 91W StormWatch No. 01

 

Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 91W StormWatch No. 01

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) 91W STORMWATCH #01

Issued at: 7:30 PM PhT (11:30 GMT) Sunday 15 October 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT), Monday 16 Oct 2017 or earlier
Current Status and OutlookA developing Tropical Disturbance (LPA) [91W] in the vicinity of Western Micronesia (Caroline Islands) is heading towards the Philippine Sea and is likely to become a Tropical Cyclone within the next 06 to 24 hours.  It is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow evening (Mon Oct 16).
Where is LPA 91W?As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 15…0900 GMT.  The developing center was located over Western Micronesia (near 9.3N 137.2E), about 107 km west-southwest of Colonia, Yap State or 1,284 km east of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte. 
How strong is it?Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center…Gustiness: 50 kph
Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving North-Northwest @ 19 kph, towards Easternmost Part of the Central Philippine Sea.
Forecast Highlights
  • The reliable Global Typhoon Forecast Models (GTFM) are showing this system to become a Tropical Depression up to a minimal Tropical Storm (TS) within the next 06 to 24 hours, and will enter the PAR on Monday evening, Oct 16, between 8-10pm.  The forecast confidence is currently at Medium (35-65%).
  • This LPA is too far away to directly affect any part of the Philippines.
  • Once this LPA becomes a Tropical Cyclone (TC) and enters the PAR – it will be locally named as "PAOLO," with global name "LAN"
  • The Day 4 to 6 forecast shows it recurving north to north-northeast across the Philippine Sea towards the Sea south of Japan If this trend will continue, no Philippine landfall is expected. 
  • This 24-hour StormWatch Update will be replaced with a 12-hrly Tropical Cyclone Updates once the LPA 91W becomes a Tropical Cyclone and enters the PAR.

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Saturday, October 14, 2017

Severe Tropical Storm KHANUN (ODETTE) Final Update

 

Severe Tropical Storm KHANUN (ODETTE) Final Update

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SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KHANUN (ODETTE) UPDATE #09 [FINAL]

Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Saturday 14 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

Severe Tropical Storm KHANUN (ODETTE) nears Typhoon classification as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

This storm is expected to move west-northwestward at a faster speed of 21 kph within the next 24 hours. KHANUN (ODETTE) could become a Typhoon (TY) late tonight or early Sunday (Oct 15).

*This is the Final Update on this Tropical Cyclone.

STS KHANUN (ODETTE) together with its Eastern Trough and the Southwesterly Surface Windflow will continue to bring "On-and-Off" light, moderate to at times heavy rains with thunderstorms across most parts of Luzon including Bicol Region, MiMaRoPa, and Western Visayas today. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures and be on full alert against flash floods, landslides and swollen river banks.

Where is KHANUN (ODETTE)?As of 5:00 PM PhT, October 14…0900 GMT.  The center was located over the West Philippine Sea (near 18.3N 117.7E), about 296 km west-northwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur or 331 km west of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 110 kph near the center…Gustiness: 140 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving North-Northwest @ 21 kph, towards Southern China.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a Typhoon (TY) as it moves WNW across the South China Sea towards Hainan Island, Southern China…about 244 km south of Hong Kong, China [2PM Oct 15: 20.2N 114.1E @ 130kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)

> Tropical Cyclone Size (in diameter): 730 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 50 km from the center

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 05:00 PM PhT Sat October 14, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 18.3º N Lat 117.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 341 km NW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan
Distance 2: 376 km NW of Dagupan City, Pangasinan
Distance 3: 400 km NW of Urdaneta City, Pangasinan
Distance 4: 413 km WSW of Calayan Island, Cagayan
Distance 5: 548 km NW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Severe Tropical Storm KHANUN (ODETTE) Update Number 008

 

Severe Tropical Storm KHANUN (ODETTE) Update Number 008

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SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KHANUN (ODETTE) UPDATE #08

Issued at: 6:45 AM PhT (22:45 GMT) Saturday 14 October 2017
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday, 14 October 2017
Current Status and Outlook

KHANUN (ODETTE) has strengthened into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it drifted very slowly, west-southwestward during the past 06 hours. Its eastern rainbands still spreading across Pangasinan and Western Zambales.

This storm is expected to start moving northwestward at a speed of 15 kph within the next 12 to 24 hours, and will therefore exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) later tonight. KHANUN (ODETTE) could become a Typhoon (TY) by early Sunday morning (Oct 15) while over the South China Sea.

*TS KHANUN (ODETTE) together with its Eastern Trough and the Southwesterly Surface Windflow will continue to bring "On-and-Off" light, moderate to at times heavy rains with thunderstorms across most parts of Luzon including Bicol Region, MiMaRoPa, and Western Visayas today. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures and be on full alert against flash floods, landslides and swollen river banks.

Where is KHANUN (ODETTE)?As of 5:00 AM PhT, October 14…2100 GMT.  The center was located over the West Philippine Sea (near 16.9N 118.5E), about 179 km west-northwest of Alaminos City, Pangasinan or 214 km west-southwest of Vigan  City, Ilocos Sur
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 95 kph near the center…Gustiness: 120 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West-Southwest @ 07 kph, towards West Philippine Sea.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 100 mm expected):
>> Western sections of Central and Northern Luzon – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Typhoon (TY) after it exited the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on a northwesterly track…about 455 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China [2AM Oct 15: 18.8N 116.2E @ 120kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while making landfall over the Northeastern Coast of Hainan Island, Southern China…about 433 km southwest of Hong Kong, China [2AM Oct 16: 19.9N 110.9E @ 110kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 520 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)

> Tropical Cyclone Size (in diameter): 520 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 05:00 AM PhT Sat October 14, 2017
Location of Center/Eye: Near 16.9º N Lat 118.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 224 km WNW of San Carlos City, Pangasinan
Distance 2: 244 km WNW of Urdaneta City, Pangasinan
Distance 3: 274 km NW of Tarlac City, Tarlac
Distance 4: 293 km WNW of San Jose City, Nueva Ecija
Distance 5: 377 km NW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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