Thursday, February 15, 2018

Tropical Depression SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 17


Tropical Depression SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 17





Issued at: 6:30 AM PhT (22:30 GMT) Thursday, 15 February 2018
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Thursday, 15 February 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression SANBA (BASYANG) has been meandering along the southern part of Sulu Sea during the past 6 hours and remains quasi-stationary. Its rainbands continues to affect Central and Southern Palawan.

24-hr Outlook: TD SANBA (BASYANG) is expected to maintain its intensity and shall move west-northwestward at a forward speed of 15 km/hr.  The center is forecast to cross Extreme Southern Palawan later tonight and shall be over the West Philippine Sea, near the west coast of Extreme Southern Palawan by early Friday morning (Feb 16). 

The combined effects of TD SANBA (BASYANG), its associated Trough, and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring scattered moderate to at times heavy scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Palawan, Kalayaan Island Group and Sulu Archipelago.

Where is SANBA (BASYANG)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, February 15…2100 GMT. The center was located over the southern part of the Sulu Sea (near 7.4N 119.1E), about 288 km south of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan or 448 km west of Zamboanga City, Zamboanga Del Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)Quasi-Stationary, towards Extreme Southern Palawan.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along Extreme Southern Palawan (Balabac Group of Islands) tonight between 9-10 pm, with a High Strike Probability of 85-95%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 50 mm expected):
>> Central and Southern Palawan and Kalayaan Island Group – Today through Friday early morning (Feb 16). 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its intensity as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea or near the western coast of Extreme Southern Palawan…about 315 km west-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Feb 16: 8.4N 116.4E @ 45kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while passing along the Spratly Islands…about 661 km west-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Feb 17: 8.7N 112.9E @ 45kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 455 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu February 15, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 7.4º N Lat 119.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 472 km WSW of Bayawan City, Negros Oriental
Distance 2: 483 km WSW of Dipolog  City, Zamboanga Del Norte
Distance 3: 492 km WSW of Dapitan City, Zamboanga Del Norte
Distance 4: 505 km WSW of Bais City, Negros Oriental
Distance 5: 826 km SSW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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