Wednesday, February 14, 2018

Tropical Depression SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 14


Tropical Depression SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 14





Issued at: 12:15 PM PhT (04:15 GMT) Wednesday, 14 February 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday, 14 February 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression SANBA (BASYANG) has maintained its strength as it continues to move quicky  west-southwestward across the southern part of the Sulu Sea during the past 6 hours. Its rainbands spreading across Central and Southern Palawan.

24-hr Outlook: TD SANBA (BASYANG) is expected to re-intensify slightly and resume its westerly movement at a forward speed of 21 kph, and shall cross the Balabac Strait (located in between Southern Palawan and Northern Borneo) around midnight on Thursday (12-1am Feb 15), emerging over the southernmost part of the West Philippine Sea by Thursday morning.  It may still re-intensify into a Tropical Storm (TS) within the next 18-24 hrs upon reaching the West Philippine Sea. 

The combined effects of TD SANBA (BASYANG), its associated Trough, and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring scattered to widespread light to moderate to at times heavy rains and thunderstorms across Eastern Luzon, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, and Visayas.

Where is SANBA (BASYANG)?As of 11:00 AM PhT today, February 14…0300 GMT. The center was located over the southern part of the Sulu Sea (near 7.4N 119.4E), about 293 km south-southeast of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan or 414 km west of Zamboanga City, Zamboanga Del Sur.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 45 kph near the center…Gustiness: 65 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West-Southwest @ 38 kph, towards Southern Palawan-Northern Borneo Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: None.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Central and Southern Palawan, Kalayaan Island Group – Today through Thursday morning (Feb 15). 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY EVENING: Re-intensifies slightly as it approaches the Balabac Strait…about 294 km south-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8PM Feb 14: 7.6N 117.6E @ 55kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

THURSDAY MORNING: Emerges over the southern part of the West Philippine Sea as it is about to exit the southeastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), regains TS classification…about 443 km west-southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Feb 15: 7.8N 115.4E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelLOW..

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 150 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 615 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Wed February 14, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 7.4º N Lat 119.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 443 km WSW of Bayawan City, Negros Oriental
Distance 2: 451 km WSW of Dipolog City, Zamboanga Del Norte
Distance 3: 460 km WSW of Dapitan City, Zamboanga Del Norte
Distance 4: 476 km WSW of Bais City, Negros Oriental
Distance 5: 818 km SSW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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