Thursday, February 15, 2018

Tropical Disturbance (LPA) SANBA [BASYANG] Final Update


Tropical Disturbance (LPA) SANBA [BASYANG] Final Update


Issued at: 6:15 PM PhT (10:15 GMT) Thursday, 15 February 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression SANBA (BASYANG) has weakened into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) as it moves north-northwestward over the western part of the Sulu Sea or near the eastern coast of Southern Palawan. Its rainbands continues to affect Central and Southern Palawan and Kalayaan Island Group.

24-hr Outlook: This system will weaken further as it moves west-northwestward towards Southern Palawan at a forward speed of 18 km/hr. It is expected to dissipate as it moves across the West Philippine Sea. It will landfall over the eastern coast of Southern Palawan tonight (Feb 15) between 7-8 pm.

*This is the final update on this tropical cyclone.

Tropical Disturbance (LPA) SANBA [BASYANG] and its Trough will bring scattered moderate to at times heavy scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Palawan including the Kalayaan Island Group.

Where is the LPA (Ex-SANBA)?As of 05:00 PM PhT today, February 15…0900 GMT. The exposed center was located over the western part of the Sulu Sea (near 8.9N 118.9E), about 119 km south of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan or 405 km west-southwest of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center…Gustiness: 55 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)North-Northwest @ 21 kph, towards Southern Palawan.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the eastern coast of Southern Palawan tonight (Feb 15) between 7-8 pm, with a High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be directly affected?Moderate to Heavy Rains (30 to 50 mm expected):
>> Central and Southern Palawan and Kalayaan Island Group – Today through Friday morning (Feb 16). 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
1-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens slightly after crossing Southern Palawan, expected to dissipate as it moves over the West Philippine Sea…about 122 km southwest of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Feb 16: 9.3N 117.9E @ 30kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 150 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 575 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 05:00 PM PhT Thu February 15, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 8.9º N Lat 118.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 438 km W of Bayawan City, Negros Oriental
Distance 2: 449 km WSW of Iloilo City, Iloilo
Distance 3: 455 km WSW of Himamaylan City, Negros Occidental
Distance 4: 480 km WSW of Bago City, Negros Occidental
Distance 5: 673 km SSW of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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