Sunday, February 11, 2018

Tropical Storm 02W Update No. 01


Tropical Storm 02W Update No. 01





Issued at: 6:45 AM PhT (22:45 GMT) Sunday, 11 February 2018
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Sunday, 11 January 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Depression (TD) 02W has rapidly intensified into a Tropical Storm (TS) during the past 12 hours and is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon or evening.  This cyclone is now threatening Eastern Mindanao with a possible landfall on Monday evening or early Tuesday morning (Feb 13).

24-hr Outlook: TS 02W is expected to move quickly west-northwest across the eastern part of the South Philippine Sea with a forward speed of 29 km/hr, and could become a Severe Tropical Storm later today.

TS 02W will start to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas beginning today.

Where is 02W?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, February 11…2100 GMT.  The center was located over the Southwestern Part of Yap State, Western Micronesia (near 6.7N 137.1E), about 297 km east-southeast of Koror, Republic of Palau or 1,199 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center…Gustiness: 100 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West @ 24 kph, towards the Republic of Palau.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along Surigao Del Sur-Davao Oriental Area by early Tuesday morning, between 12 midnight-2am (Feb 13), with a Medium  Strike Probability of 45-55%..
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens into a Typhoon (TY) as it moves WNW across eastern part of the South Philippine Sea…about 608 km east of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur [2AM Feb 12: 7.9N 131.8E @ 120kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Makes landfall over Southern Surigao Del Sur as a TY, starts to cross Caraga and Northern Mindanao Regions…about 29 km east-northeast of Bayugan City, Agusan Del Sur [2AM Feb 13: 8.8N 126.0E @ 130kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded into an STS after crossing Zamboanga Del Norte, emerges over the Sulu Sea…about 220 km southwest of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental [2AM Feb 14: 8.4N 121.0E @ 110kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 780 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun February 11, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 6.7º N Lat 137.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 232 km E of PAR
Distance 2: 335 km SSW of Colonia, Yap Is. (CNMI)
Distance 3: 1234 km ESE of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur
Distance 4: 1286 km E of Davao City, Davao Del Sur
Distance 5: 1958 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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