Sunday, February 11, 2018

Tropical Storm 02W Update No. 02


Tropical Storm 02W Update No. 02





Issued at: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Sunday, 11 February 2018
Next update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Sunday, 11 January 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm 02W a little bit weaker as it moves westward closer to the Republic of Palau…expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late this afternoon.  This cyclone continues to threaten Northeastern Mindanao with a possible landfall on Monday evening or early Tuesday morning (Feb 13).

24-hr Outlook: TS 02W is expected to move quickly west to west-northwest across the eastern and central parts of the South Philippine Sea with a forward speed of 32 km/hr, and could become a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) on Monday morning (Feb 12).

TS 02W will start to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring occasional rain showers and thunderstorms across Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas beginning late today.

Where is 02W?As of 11:00 AM PhT today, February 11…2100 GMT..  The center was located over the Southwestern Part of Yap State, Western Micronesia (near 7.0N 136.4E), about 214 km east-southeast of Koror, Republic of Palau or 1,121 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 75 kph near the center…Gustiness: 95 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West-Northwest @ 14 kph, towards the Republic of Palau.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along Surigao Del Sur by late Monday evening (Feb 12) between 10-11pm, with a Medium  Strike Probability of 45-55%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY MORNING: Strengthens into an STS as it moves WNW across central part of the South Philippine Sea…about 464 km east of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur [8AM Feb 12: 8.2N 130.5E @ 95kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

TUESDAY MORNING: Emerges over the southern part of Bohol Sea and weakens into a TS after crossing Northeastern Mindanao…about 59 km northeast of Oroquieta City, Misamis Occidental [8AM Feb 13: 8.9N 124.1E @ 85kph].  Confidence LevelLOW.

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Re-intensifies back to an STS as it traverses westward across the central part of Sulu Sea…about 163 km southeast of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [8AM Feb 14: 9.0N 119.9E @ 95kph]...  Confidence LevelLOW.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 645 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sun February 11, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 7.0º N Lat 136.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 154 km E of PAR
Distance 2: 341 km SSW of Colonia, Yap Is. (CNMI)
Distance 3: 1151 km E of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur
Distance 4: 1208 km E of Davao City, Davao Del Sur
Distance 5: 1874 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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