Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Tropical Storm SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 09


Tropical Storm SANBA (BASYANG) Update No. 09





Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday, 13 February 2018
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Tuesday, 13 February 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm SANBA (BASYANG) has changed its course, moving quickly towards the northwest and is now very near the coast of Northern Surigao Del Sur. Landfall is expected in the next few hours along Northern Surigao Del Sur and shall traverse the northernmost portion of Agusan Del Norte.  Its rainbands continues to spread across Northern and Eastern Mindanao, and the whole of the Visayas.

24-hr Outlook: TS SANBA (BASYANG) is expected to weaken into a Tropical Depression (TD) as it moves west-northwest to westward at a speed of 30 km/h. Its center shall be over the Southern part of Bohol later this afternoon and shall cross Southern Cebu and Southern Negros through the early evening. TS Sanba (Basyang) shall be over Sulu Sea by early Wednesday morning (Feb 14). 

The combined effects of TS SANBA (BASYANG), its associated Trough, and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring moderate to extreme rains with thunderstorms and gusty winds across Bicol Region; Romblon; Visayas; Northern & Western Mindanao.

Where is SANBA (BASYANG)?As of 5:00 AM PhT today, February 13…2100 GMT. The center was located near  the east coast of Northern Surigao Del Sur (near 9.2N 126.5E), about 39 km east-northeast of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur or 124 km southeast of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte.
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving Northwest @ 47 kph, towards Northern Caraga-Southern Visayas Area.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the eastern coast of Northern Surigao Del Sur this morning between 7-8 am, with a High Strike Probability of 90-100%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (30 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> Eastern, Central, & Northern Mindanao; Visayas; Bicol Region; & Romblon – Today through Wednesday early morning (Feb 14). 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD) after crossing the landmass of Northeastern Mindanao and Southern Visayas, emerges over Sulu Sea, just west of Cagayancillo Island…about 197 km west of Sipalay City, Negros Occidental [2AM Feb 14: 9.6N 120.7E @ 55kph].  Confidence LevelMEDIUM.

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea after crossing the southern portion of Central Palawan, re-intensifies into a TS…about 286 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Feb 15: 9.6N 116.2E @ 75kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Outside of PAR, in the vicinity of Kalayaan Island Group, weakens slightly…about 643 km west of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Feb 16: 11.0N 113.0E @ 65kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 620 km (Small)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue February 13, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 9.2º N Lat 126.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 106 km E of Cabadbaran  City, Agusan Del Norte
Distance 2: 113 km NNE of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur
Distance 3: 160 km ENE of Gingoog City, Misamis Oriental
Distance 4: 211 km ESE of Maasin City, Southern Leyte
Distance 5: 841 km SE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines



Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>
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