Sunday, February 11, 2018

Tropical Storm SANBA Update No. 03


Tropical Storm SANBA Update No. 03


Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Sunday, 11 February 2018
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Monday, 12 February 2018
Current Status and Outlook

Tropical Storm 02W has slightly weakened as it moves westward over the southeastern edge of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). It is expected to enter the PAR tonight and will be called locally as "BASYANG". It has an international name of "SANBA", a name of place in Macao, China. The storm is expected to landfall over Northeastern Mindanao by Tuesday early morning (Feb 13).

24-hr Outlook: TS SANBA is expected to slightly intensify as it moves west-northwestward over the northwestern part of the South Philippine Sea with a forward speed of 36 km/hr.

The combined effects of TS SANBA and its Trough and enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring isolated to light scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Extreme Northern, Northern, & Eastern Luzon; Bicol Region; & Eastern Visayas & Mindanao.

Where is SANBA?As of 05:00 PM PhT today, February 11…0900 GMT. The center was located over the southeastern edge of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) (near 7.1N 135.2E), about 988 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental or 1020 km east-southeast of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur
How strong is it?

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 65 kph near the center…Gustiness: 85 kph.

Past Movement (06 hrs)It was moving West @ 22 kph, towards the Northeastern Mindanao.
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s):: Along the eastern coast of Surigao Del Sur by Tuesday early morning (Feb 13) between 1-2am, with a High Strike Probability of 70-80%.
What Philippine areas will be most affected?Moderate to Extreme Rains (50 to more than 100 mm expected):
>> None.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):
>> None.

Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+:: None.
3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Slightly intensifies as it moves over the northwestern part of the South Philippine Sea, threatening to make landfall over Northeastern Mindanao…about 248 km east of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur [2PM Feb 12: 8.6N 128.5E @ 85kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Slightly weakens after crossing Northeastern Mindanao, emerges near the southern coast of Siquijor…about 36 km south-southeast of Dumaguete  City, Negros Oriental [2PM Feb 13: 9.0N 123.4E @ 65kph].  Confidence Level: LOW.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Tropical Depression (TD) as it moves over the western part of the Sulu Sea, threatening to make landfall over Southern Palawan…about 108 km south of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2PM Feb 14: 9.0N 118.8E @ 55kph].  Confidence LevelHIGH.

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/have per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm Info> 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]

> Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)

> Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 840 km (Medium)

> Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None.

Additional DistancesTime/Date: 05:00 PM PhT Sun February 11, 2018
Location of Center/Eye: Near 7.1º N Lat 135.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 1050 km E of Panabo  City, Davao Del Norte
Distance 2: 1075 km E of Davao City City, Davao Del Sur
Distance 3: 1087 km E of Cabadbaran City, Agusan Del Norte
Distance 4: 1106 km ESE of Surigao City, Surigao Del Norte
Distance 5: 1753 km ESE of Metro Manila

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: John Christian B. Lequiron for WeatherPhilippines


Posted by: " (Michael V. Padua)" <>
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